Uncertain Predictions

Winter was just a few months away and the Red Indians went up to their Chief and asked him about the weather forecast for the coming months. “Is the winter going to be mild or will it be a very severe one, Chief?” they asked. The Chief was unsure but he could not let it be unknown. So he told them that they should indeed be facing severe weather and advised them to start collecting plenty of wood to see them through the cold months. However after a week he decided to call up the Weather Forecast Service office and asked them for their weather forecast.

“It seems like it’s going to be a tough winter,” responded the weatherman. The Chief passed on the information to his people and told them to collect more wood. The Chief decided to call the weatherman once a week to find out about the latest weather updates. Week after week he called and the weatherman predicted

a very, very cold winter. 

 

The Chief periodically passed on this information to his people and said, “Since we are in for a severely cold winter, I request all of you to collect as much wood as possible. Every scrap of wood will come in handy. So collect every little twig.”

Once during his routine call to the Weather Forecast Office the Chief asked the weatherman, “Are you sure we are going to have a bad winter?”, “Yes. Of course,” said the weatherman. “How can you be so sure?” asked the Chief. “The Red Indians are going about collecting wood like crazy.”

Moral: This is how the Stock Markets work!